实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

银行业联合授信制度制约企业的非效率投资了吗*——基于沪深A股公司的分析

中国银保监会出台联合授信管理制度旨在抑制企业过度融资行为，提高资金使用效率。为检验该制度是否达到预期效果，采用2014—2018年沪深A股上市公司样本，运用非平衡面板数据回归实证考察联合授信机制对企业非效率投资的影响，发现联合授信对企业的非效率投资（包含投资不足和投资过度）呈现显著抑制效应，其中联合授信对投资过度的抑制效应最大。进一步研究发现，相较于国有、大规模、低负债、高盈利等异质属性的企业，联合授信对非国有、小规模、高负债、低盈利等属性企业的非效率投资（尤其是投资过度）抑制效应更为显著。     

利用大数据分析技术的智能化网络故障诊断系统

随着网络技术的快速发展以及各种新网络业务的出现，网络的规模日益扩大和复杂。同时，各种网络服务对于网络可靠性的要求也逐渐提高，这就对网络的维护提出了更高的要求。在这种情况下，传统的网络维护模式逐渐不能适应现代网络发展的需求。针对现代大型网络的故障诊断问题，利用大数据分析技术，设计并完成了一套整体的智能化故障诊断系统。在此系统中，针对不同的故障类型，利用能够获取到的数据类型，针对性地设计了相关的故障诊断模块和算法。系统整体基于开源的数据处理平台构建，具备良好的可扩展性。通过实际案例数据的验证，结果表明此系统具备良好的处理实际网络故障的能力，将大数据分析技术应用于网络故障诊断领域也具备较强的可行性。     

中小型侦察监视特种飞机系统的设计技术

分析了当前国内外典型中小型特种飞机的特点和应用方向，阐述了中小型特种飞机系统的技术发展趋势。通过分析典型的特种通用飞机的性能和平台构型特点，详细描述了基于典型中小型特种飞机平台的机载侦察监视应用系统的组成、原理、主要性能及技术难点，并结合实际工程应用，介绍了系统的应用成果。应用分析表明，基于中小型特种飞机平台的机载平台的应用系统有较大的应用范围和市场前景。     

一种USB测控应答机的健壮捕获算法

在统一S频段（USB）测控应答机中频数字化处理的基础上，提出了一种健壮的相位调制(PM)信号捕获算法。针对USB测控应答机输入信号存在副载波时捕获易于假锁的问题，采用快速傅里叶变换(FFT)与锁频锁相环结合的算法，利用PM信号频谱对称的特点，快速获得残差载波的正确频率，防止捕获到副载波信号或者其他干扰信号上；采用锁频锁相环实现PM信号的精确捕获与跟踪，适应USB测控应答机大动态多普勒变化及高灵敏度的要求。通过仿真试验验证了该方案载波正确捕获的有效性，且接收灵敏度达到-121 dBm。     

基于多元数据分析的城市通风廊道规划策略研究——以北京副中心为例

城市通风廊道是提升城市通透性,改善城市微循环,减缓热岛效应的有效途径之一。通过建设通风廊道让城市"呼吸"起来,可以有效减轻热岛效应,增强空气流动性,提高人体舒适度。基于通州区建设大背景及热点问题,分析了国内外典型案例,利用通州国家级气象站多年观测记录及周边地区气象资料、通州城区1:2000建筑基础地理信息数据和德国高分辨率卫星影像Rapid(5m分辨率)、通州区2015年土地利用现状图及规划图等,分析了通州及周边地区的风环境,研究了通州城区天空开阔度和地表粗糙程度,得出了通风潜力的空间分布。同时,利用卫星遥感资料,分析了热环境的空间分布。提出了通州城区通风廊道规划原则和建议。     

中国特色绿色交通城市发展战略与对策研究

目前中国汽车生产和消费增长迅猛,如果不能从战略上采取有力措施,那么未来十几年小汽车将在全国各大中城市蔓延爆发,中国小汽车爆炸式增长将全面引发城市交通危机和生态环境危机。研究发现,中国过去三十年走过的快速机动化道路,实际上重复了以美国为首的西方发达国家走过的小汽车建城模式的老路,必须从观念上予以澄清,在实践中予以纠偏。立足中国国情和新技术革命带来的机遇,为解决中国城市交通难题,提出了在快速城镇化过程中构建多样化的绿色城市交通体系,建设绿色交通城市的目标,并在此基础上提出五大对策:(1)积极转变和创新城市发展理念;(2)大力推进"轻行城市"建设;(3)将雄安新区建设成为绿色交通城市典范;(4)积极开展城市小汽车的需求侧管理;(5)大力推进汽车产业的供给侧结构性改革。遏制汽车生产和消费的过快增长已经刻不容缓,这对推进中国生态文明建设关系全局的关键战略,对于中国城市的绿色发展,及实现全国生态环境质量的总体改善,具有重大战略意义。     

Examining the efficacy of self-classification approach in segmenting special-interest tourists: food tourism case

Self-classification is used as an a priori approach to tourist typology and market segmentation. However, skepticism still surrounds its ability to incorporate the multidimensionality of tourist behavior. This study seeks to empirically verify the efficacy of a single-item self-classification approach. The robustness of this self-classification measure is examined by comparing it to a data-driven multidimensional psychographic approach in terms of its ability to predict the behaviors of tourists toward food-related destination consumption. Results suggest that the single-item self-classification approach performs equally well as the psychographic approach in segmenting food-related consumption behaviors. The implications and limitations of this study are also discussed.     

Chinese tourists' views of nature and natural landscape interpretation: a generational perspective

This study investigates Chinese tourists’ views of nature, interest in animal experiences and their preferred natural landscape interpretation content from a generational perspective. Eight hundred and eight self-administered questionnaires were collected at Wulingyuan, a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site, in China. It suggests that overall Chinese traditional cultural values and beliefs, notably the thinking of tian ren he yi (oneness of nature with humans), still have considerable impacts on Chinese tourists. They were found to have a strong sense of connection with nature and a preference for cultural interpretations of natural landscapes. Meanwhile, Chinese might be reaching a point of convergence in terms of attitude towards nature and animals with their Western counterparts, as reflected by their weak anthropocentric view, and strong ethical and aesthetic appreciation of animals, regardless of generation cohorts. Yet, the study shows significant generational gaps: older generations have a stronger connection with nature, are more concerned about environmental issues and show more support for the Western approach towards nature protection; the younger generations hold weaker anthropocentrism, and are more interested in animals, yet are less likely to learn about nature through tourism interpretation.     

Is abusive supervision an absolute devil? Literature review and research agenda

Abusive supervision has received increasing attention in the field. However, few studies have qualitatively reviewed its latest developments. The current paper reviews 48 studies on abusive supervision using content analysis. We identify six emerging trends of abusive supervision, including inconsistency of abusive behaviors, comparison between perceived and objective behaviors, reciprocity, team-level climate, coworker effects, and comparisons between theoretical perspectives. Based on a review of those six trends and some emerging findings, we identify and validate the possible positive effects of abusive supervision from an integrated analysis. We also determine the moderating role that Asian culture plays in differentiating the negative and positive effects of abusive supervision. Specifically, we identify the differences between Asian and Western cultures, and then explore the moral mechanisms (i.e., violation of moral standards, conflict of moral principles) through which abusive supervision may exert positive effects in the Asian cultural context. Finally, we clarify our theoretical implications and provide suggestions for future research.